Election Study 2019-2020

Description

In 2019-2020, Israel went to the polls three times: on April 9, to elect the 21st Knesset, on September 17, to elect the 22nd Knesset, and on March 2 to elect the 23rd Knesset.

Following the April 2019 election, the incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of the Likud party, obtained the mandate to form a government, but failed to do so. He did not return the mandate to the President, and the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and lead to a new election, which was held on September 17.

Following the September 2019 election, the interim Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again obtained the mandate to form a government, but failed to do so, again. He returned the mandate to the President, who then passed the mandate to form a government to Benny Gantz, the head of the Kahol-Lavan party, who also failed to form a coalition. This in turn, initiated a 21-day period in which a majority of the Knesset members could ask the President to cast the formation of the government on any Knesset member who would agree to try and form a coalition. However, such a majority was not obtained and the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and lead to yet another election, which was held on March 2, 2020.

The study investigates voting behavior; evaluations of parties, candidates, coalitions, and the events that lead to the second and third elections; perceptions of representation and democracy; efficacy, political knowledge, media consumption; and attitudes on various issues on the national agenda in these three election cycles.

April and September 2019 Elections

The study employs a four-wave panel design for the April and September 2019 elections:

1) April 2019 - pre-election survey (first wave) was conducted in the six weeks leading to the April election between February 24 and April 8, 2019. It
was carried out in four sub-samples, each consisting of an independent representative sample of the electorate.
2) April 2019 - post-election survey (second wave) was in the field immediately after the April election, between April 11 and April 18, 2019.
3) September 2019 - pre-election survey (third wave) was conducted in the two weeks before the September 17 election, between September 1-16, 2019.
4) September 2019 - post-election survey (fourth wave) returned to the respondents between September 19 and October 7, 2019.

It uses a stratified sample of Jews and Arabs: The Jewish sample is a random sample of individuals based on the Ministry of Interior's listing of the population, to which mobile and fixed-line telephone numbers were matched. The Arab sample is a random sample of households stratified by district and within district by religion (Muslim, Christian, Druze). It includes six district stratums out of the seven districts defined by the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics: Jerusalem, North, Haifa, Center, Tel Aviv, and South (excluding the Judea and Samaria district).

Tel Aviv University's B. I. and Lucille Cohen Institute for Public Opinion Research carried out the fieldwork using Hebrew and Arabic telephone interviews.

March 2020 Election

The March 2020 study employs a two-wave panel design.

1) Pre-election survey - The first wave was conducted in the five weeks leading to the March election between January 29 and March 1, 2020.
2) Post-election survey - The second wave was in the field immediately after the March election, between March 4-15, 2020.

Tel Aviv University's B. I. and Lucille Cohen Institute for Public Opinion Research carried out the fieldwork among Israeli Jews using Hebrew and Russian telephone interviews, and among Arabs using Arabic telephone interviews. The sample used by B. I. and Lucille Cohen Institute for Public Opinion Research is the same as described above for the 2019 elections.

Given the time and timing constraints of the pre-election survey, which resulted in a small number of Arab interviewees, we commissioned the Statnet Research Institute, which specializes in polling the Arab sector, to interview a sample of Israeli Arabs to complement the data collected by the Cohen Institute based on the same questionnaires, survey rules and procedures. Statnet's sample is a random sample of individual cellular phones, similarly stratified by district and within district by religion (Muslim, Christian, Druze).

Population

Eligible voters in Israel.

Summary of INES Data Characteristics, 2019-2020 Elections:


1 The survey was carried out in four sub-samples, each consisting of an independent representative sample of the electorate. The first sub-sample was interviewed between February 24 and March 5, 2019 (N=394); the second between March 6-17 (N=407); the third between March 18-29 (N=403); and the fourth between March 31 and April 8 (N=410).

Principal Investigator

Prof. Michal Shamir