Moore's law of personal home pages?

John B. Killoran of Brock University in Ontario, Canada, extrapolated from that first survey. In an article published in 1999, he noted that if in that first study 6% of American Internet users had posted personal homepages...

Given recent estimates of over 70 million American Internet users, we can estimate that over 4 million Americans have posted personal homepages.

I see no reason to assume that such an extrapolation is logical. Killoran seems to assume that newer users have the same motivations for logging onto the net as those who logged on a few years earlier, and use it in the same ways. Otherwise, the extrapolation doesn't hold. Studies show, however (sorry, no link this time) that there are significant differences between older and newer users.

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