קורס תצפיות סטטיסטיות של סופות בקווי הרוחב הממוזגים 0341-4108-01

מרצה: נילי הרניק (קפלון 312, טל 6359, harnik@post.tau.ac.il).

פגישות: יום ה, 13-15, קפלון 205.

קריאה שבועית:

שבוע 1: (31.1.08) הקדמה שכוללת מבוא ל storm tracks, עם עיקרי תיאוריה ומוטיבציה כללית מאחורי המאמרים שנקרא.

מבוססת על המאמרים הבאים:

Chang et al, 2002: Storm track dynamics. J Climate 15

Swanson, K, 2007: Storm track dynamics. Chapter 4 of “Global circulation of the atmosphere”, 2007. Princeton university press. T. Schneider and A. Sobel Eds.

שבוע 2: (7.2.08) המאמר שנדון בשיעור

Hoskins and Hodges, JAS, 2002 – New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks

שבוע 3: המאמר שנדון בשיעור

Hoskins and Hodges, 2005: A new perspective on Southern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. J Climate 18, 4108-4129.

קישור למאמר דרך האוניברסיטה (צריך למלא שת שם הג'ורנל, להקליק עליו ולחפש המאמר). אם לא הצלחתם, ניתן גם לפנות אלי במייל ולקבל עותק PDF.

שבוע 4

Wallace et al, 1988: relationship between cyclone tracks, anticyclone tracks and baroclinic waveguides. JAS

שבוע 5

Chang, 1993: Downstream development of baroclinic waves as inferred from regression analysis, JAS

שבוע 6

Chang 1999: Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere winter. JAS 56, 1708.

וגם חלקים 1-3 מ:

Chang 1999: Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part II: Seasonal and hemispheric variations. JAS 56, 1729.

שבוע 7:

Wernli H. and Sprenger M., 2007. Identification and ERA15 climatology of potential vorticity streamers and cut-offs near the extratropical tropopause. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1569-1586

שבוע 8:

חלק 1:

Lau, N-C. 1988: Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to low frequency changes in the circulation patterns. JAS 45, 2718

Metz, W. 1989: Low frequency anomalies of atmospheric flow and the effect of cyclone scale eddies: a canonical correlation analysis. JAS 46, 1026

חלק 2: שעור השלמה:

Croci- Maspoli et al, 2007: A multifaceted climatology of atmospheric blocking and its recent linear trend. J climate 20. 633.

שבוע 9:

Nakamura, 1992: Midwinter suppression of baroclinic wave activity over the Pacific, JAS.

Nakamura and Sampe, 2002: Trapping of synoptic scale disturbances into the North Pacific subtropical jet core in midwinter. GRL 29.

שבוע 10:

Chang and Song, 2006, The seasonal cycles in the distribution of precipitation around cyclones in the western north Pacific and Atlantic.

סילבוס

Synoptic scale midlatitude storms are organized in geographical regions called storm
tracks. The climatology and variability of various storm track characteristics (e.g.
intensity and frequency of the storms), and how these depend on the larger scale time
averaged flow are central features of the mid latitude circulation and climate, and are a
major component affecting midlatitude large scale variability, both intrinsic and
externally forced.
As such, much effort has been invested in developing various statistical diagnostics,
ranging from the simplest most standard averaging to sophisticated feature tracking
routines, and applying them to observational and model data. In this course we will read and discuss some of the main papers describing the statical observed features of
midlatitude storms, and their variability. The goal will be to get a good grasp of what
midlatitude storm tracks look like, how they behave, and why. In the process, students
will also be exposed to various statistical techniques used in atmospheric sciences. The course will consist of reading a paper each week. Each week I will offer a brief
background/intro and one of the students will lead a discussion.  The course will be
offered officially to MA and PhD students, though anyone is welcome to join, either for
credit or as a listener. Evaluation will be done based on a project at the end.

ציון

הציון יינתן עפ"י עבודה.